In a highly anticipated showdown at Wrigley Field this afternoon, the Arizona Diamondbacks will take on the Chicago Cubs at 2:20 PM ET. The Diamondbacks come into the game as slight money line favorites at -106, and with both teams riding three-game over streaks, the matchup promises to be an engaging affair.
Pitching Matchup
On the mound for the Cubs will be Justin Steele, who has made 14 starts this season, compiling a 2-3 record with an impressive 2.71 ERA. Steele has demonstrated consistency, delivering eight quality starts thus far. His most recent outing saw him pitch seven scoreless innings, underscoring his ability to dominate on the mound. While his home ERA stands at 3.16, his road ERA is a slightly better 2.96, indicating his prowess regardless of venue. Steele is projected to strike out six batters in today's game.
Opposing Steele for the Diamondbacks will be Ryne Nelson, who holds a 6-6 record with a 4.99 ERA. Nelson, with a WHIP of 1.42 and a batting average against of .296, has shown resilience by not surrendering more than three earned runs in his last six starts. His ability to keep games close has been a valuable asset for Arizona. However, he faces a challenging task against a Cubs lineup that has been hot lately. Nelson is projected to record four strikeouts in the contest.
Team Performance
The Diamondbacks currently hold a 49-48 overall record, positioning them second in the NL West, seven games behind the Dodgers. They've been successful on the road recently, boasting a 4-1 record in their last five away games and securing two straight road victories. Arizona's run line record mirrors their overall record at 49-48, with their games averaging 9.8 runs this season. Christian Walker and Ketel Marte have been pivotal, hitting 22 and 19 homers respectively.
The Cubs, sitting at a 47-51 record, are fifth in the NL Central, trailing the Brewers by 8.5 games. Despite their position, the Cubs have shown significant improvement, going 7-3 in their last ten games and achieving a 4-1 record in their last five home games. Notably, the Cubs have a divisional record of 12-21 and have been successful as home underdogs with a 9-5 record in such games.
Hitting Highlights
Both teams' offenses are well-equipped to make this an exciting game. The Diamondbacks have one of the best offensive outputs in MLB, averaging five runs per game. Such productivity has catapulted their games to frequently surpass the 7.5 run line, with 84.5% of their matchups doing so this season. Meanwhile, the Cubs are averaging 4.2 runs per game, led by a collective batting average of .235. Nico Hoerner has been a standout performer, hitting .378 over his last nine games, and Christopher Morel has added power with three homers in his last eight outings.
Game Predictions
With Justin Steele and Ryne Nelson set to face off, and both teams producing offensively, the game’s over/under line being set at 7.5 runs seems attainable. Historically, the Cubs have seen 67.3% of their games exceed this mark, and they maintain a 12-10 record when the over/under line is 7.5. For the Diamondbacks, 84.5% of their games surpass this line, and they hold a 6-4 record in such scenarios.
Given the recent statistics and performances, the Diamondbacks are anticipated to narrowly edge out the Cubs with a projected score of 5-4. This prediction aligns with Justin Steele limiting runs better than Ryne Nelson but expecting the offensive prowess of Arizona to prevail.
As the two teams collide at Wrigley Field, fans can expect a tightly contested game filled with strategic pitching and potent hitting. Whether the Diamondbacks can extend their successful road run or if the Cubs continue their hot streak at home will be settled in what promises to be an exciting matchup.