At Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins experienced a setback, blowing a three-run lead to fall 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians. The critical moment came when Griffin Jax surrendered a game-winning two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth inning. The Twins' recent form indicates a worrying trend; in their last 27 games, they've suffered 18 losses, diminishing their confidence and standings.
Currently, the Twins are clinging to the third AL wild-card spot, with their lead reduced to just 1 1/2 games. Not long ago, FanGraphs had their postseason odds at a promising 95.4%, but that has now dwindled to 76.4%. This alarming dip can largely be attributed to their offensive struggles — in 12 of their last 27 games, the team failed to score more than three runs. During this stretch, the Twins are batting a modest .236 with a .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage.
One particularly glaring issue has been the team’s performance when the bases are empty. The Twins are hitting .272 in such scenarios, making them the fourth-worst in the league. As manager Rocco Baldelli noted, "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together." These struggles have magnified in recent games, having played 17 games in the last 18 days, exhausting the roster.
An often-overlooked aspect of their struggles is the bullpen's performance. Initially a strong asset with a 3.84 ERA and a tenth-best win probability added (a positive 3.41) in their first 123 games, it has since declined significantly. In the last 27 games, the bullpen's ERA ballooned to 5.47, with a league-worst minus-2.75 win probability added. Griffin Jax encapsulated the emotions within the bullpen succinctly: "It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff."
The starting rotation hasn’t fared much better. Over the same 27-game period, the rest of the rotation has posted a 6.07 ERA, averaging just 4.38 innings per start. The Twins often found themselves in promising positions, having held the lead in the seventh inning or later in five of their last 18 losses, only to falter down the stretch.
Amidst the losses, a bit of hope shines with the expected return of Max Kepler, a player who could add much-needed depth to their lineup. Additionally, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have somewhat alleviated the offensive drought, combining for a 5-for-15 performance with two doubles and a homer this month.
Further attempts at shoring up the team led to the recent acquisition of lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin brings a 4.86 ERA from his 16 starts and nine relief appearances this season. Derek Falvey, the Twins' Chief Baseball Officer, commented on the move, saying, "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help."
Despite their struggles, the Twins maintain crucial tiebreakers over the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, who are both two games behind them in the standings. The Tigers, currently in a hot streak, have gone 23-10 in their last 33 games, posing a significant threat to the Twins' positioning. As Pablo López remarked, "Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow."
As the Twins face this turbulent period, the next few games could be pivotal in determining their postseason fate. For now, the team must find ways to cohesively put together complete games, as emphasized by Baldelli, "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this."